Fundamentals are weakening. The
economic outlook looks certainly uncertain. No one seems to have an answer on
how to stop the economic haemorrhage and generate growth. Economic growth
projection for 2014/15 has been cut from 2.7% to 1.4% but with facts on the ground
it could be well below 1%. Unemployment hovers at an unprecedented level of 26%.
There is a developmental risk. The poor, as usual, are at the risk of being crowded-out
in every aspect.
The key drivers of this downward
spiral have been cited as weak global growth coupled with internal constraints
such as prolonged labour disruptions, skills shortage, administrative
shortcomings (corruption), difficulties in industrial transformation and energy
constraints. While I acknowledge all the internal economic logjams some are
restricted to certain sectors, geography with limited economic ramifications than
the incessant countrywide power outages that we began to witness in recent
times. These power outages have far reaching and overarching consequences some
of which will continue to be felt years after the affect.
Well, our attitude is still of
justified expectation that Eskom should provide us with power irregardless of
its circumstances. It is an attitude of denial that the power utility is in
deep trouble that needs time to curve out. We are still buried in the
old-fashioned blame game at the expense of our future. A dependence syndrome that
has to be shed out.
Smell the coffee, blackouts are
here for a while if not forever. The earlier government, business and
households adjust to this new reality the better. The Medupi and Kusile power
generation plants are pipeline projects whose commissioning may take longer
than scheduled. Any proactive risk manager would not sit on her laurels in
anticipation of some unknown change which they do not have control over to
improve the national power supply without taking decisive action for the good
of their organization.
We have observed many promising
African states falter, most of them within our region, because of power disruptions.
In comparison, South Africa has fared fairly well up to this day and may
continue so when the two power stations come onboard. However, Eskom has to
improve its long-range planning. Government should make conditions more lucrative
for private power generators. Business and households can look for avenues to
self-power.
In the middle of the situation, shrewd
business managers have to look for alternative power sources while Eskom rectifies
the long-term situation. Sometimes opportunities present themselves from
unimagined threats. I have observed businesses in Southern Africa that turned
power outages into competitive advantages through generating their own power
and continue to operate during blackouts.
Power shortage is a global
problem and South Africans need to realize sooner than later that this problem
is here for the long-haul. Power utilities, Eskom included, always try to give
the impression that the power supply problem is short-term. If you allow this public
relations trick into your business planning you are definitely planning to
fail. For example, it is speculative and unguaranteed for Eskom to assert that
there will be low power demand during the festive season as other economic
players and households demand more than their normal power demand during this
period.
A well prepared risk manager
would simply ensure that he has a quick fall-back in the event that Eskom fail
to keep the switch on. The business continuity intervention could take a
long-term strategy perspective especially if the plan involves green-power or
as a stop-gap measure till the power utility put order in its house. Government,
business and households have to find sustainable ways to reduce pressure on
power supply. Power generation for self-consumption is not a rare competitive
advantage option in the situation we find ourselves in. It is an opportunity
out of despair but can be sustainable.
No comments:
Post a Comment