Abstract
The 2013 general elections
in Zimbabwe were interesting. The three political parties that had formed a
government of national unity following disputed 2008 elections were each
campaigning for an exclusive government. The Zimbabwe African National Unity (ZANU)
Patriotic Front (PF) led by Robert Gabriel Mugabe was more pronounced in its
desire to lead an exclusive government. The party’s manifesto was eloquently
explicit that an exclusive ZANU (PF) led government will improve the economy
through indigenization, empowerment, development and creation of employment. This
monograph critically review ZANU (PF)’s 2013 election manifesto to expose
inherent weaknesses. It exposes the grandstanding promises which the party may
never achieve given its past performance record.
Introduction
In most developing countries
election manifestos are used to hoodwink the general public by making
unattainable political-economic promises. The general public is equally to
blame as it does not invest time to scrutinize the manifestos. Again in most of
these countries illiteracy is still an issue that divides the countries in a
bipolar. Those that are illiterate depend on the correct interpretations by the
literate if ever that happens. In most cases election decisions by illiterate
citizens are based on following the crowd, sentiment, historical values,
unsubstantiated threats and grandstanding rhetoric statements. In countries
where illiterate rates are high and form the population majority you find a
disturbing and seriously risky situation where the less informed with little
political-economic knowledge and vested interests decide on the political
leadership of the country.
Zimbabwe African National
Unity (ZANU) Patriotic Front (PF) is a political party that has delivered
independence to the country in 1980 led by Robert Gabriel Mugabe. ZANU (PF) and
Mugabe have remained in power for the past thirty three years. Over these years
the country has gone through mixed political and economic progress. Mugabe
presided over the civil strife in the early to the late 1980s, economic
structural adjustment programmes of the 1990s and the freefall of the economy
thereafter, the unplanned and often violent land reform of the 2000s and the
indigenization of the economy starting in the late 2000s. Mugabe has only
triumphed on the political front and managed to retain power but failed in all
the economic programmes that he implemented.
The paper thoroughly analyses
the manifesto that was proffered by ZANU PF during the 2013 elections in
Zimbabwe. It exposes the weaknesses of the campaign manifesto and demonstrates
how it will affect specific areas of the economy. A conclusion is then drawn
from the analysis.
Analysis
of ZANU (PF) Manifesto
This section dissects the
ZANU (PF)’s 2013 general election manifesto. It provides a fair view and
account. It also highlights certain claims and deliverables that the study
found questionable. Without analysis of this kind, it is advisable for the
electorate to invest time in scrutinizing manifestos or for the civil society
to help the general public interpret for decision making. ZANU (PF)’s election
manifesto suffers from an idea bankruptcy and is selling voodoo based
economics. The manifesto is glittered with monumental but unattainable
deliverables specifically designed for lazy readers. ZANU PF does not have
capacity to deliver what it promised in its 2013 manifesto. The manifesto is
sprout of dysfunctional financial imagination that will cripple the stable economic
environment that had been proffered by the government of national unity. An
exclusive ZANU (PF) led government will derail progress in the financial
markets, international relations, productivity levels and drive the entire
economy to ground zero.
The 108 paged manifesto may
look voluminous and intimidating yet its contents are nothing but the usual
yesteryear rhetoric. In order to concur with this analysis, one needs to read
the manifesto in order to gain the insight of emptiness that ZANU (PF) has
evolved in recent times. Everything is manipulated, the first meaninglessness is
identified in the dubious misuse of the word “unlock value” without providing
the mechanics of how to unlock the value. Secondly, the party says it will generate
approximately $2 trillion United States dollars within the five years of ZANU
PF exclusive rule through “unlocking value” form “idle assets” in the custody
of parastatals and local authorities; indigenization of foreign-owned companies
as well as the extraction of mineral resources. Surely how can a party that
presided over a free fall economy over thirty three years create $2 trillion
United States dollars in five years? By every means, this is a clear indication
of desperation for power because the height is never meant to be attained but a
convenient lie to give the party the mandate to rule.
The biggest misgiving is in
the realization that the biggest contributor to the US$2 trillion is the
extraction of mineral reserves ($1 844 223 157 000) which minerals
were there since 1980 and there is no good reason why such a life changing
value was not exploited over the past 33 years to give poor people a better
life under unchallenged exclusive ZANU PF rule then. The naked truth is that
such extravagant grandstanding promises based on unauthenticated access to
classified information could have worked in 1980 than today. If the mineral
quantification is an honest figure then the electorate that is reeling in extreme
poverty whilst ZANU PF was sitting on such value without unlocking it for the
past 33 years should never entrust it with the management of such resources.
Why did the party take the people to extreme poverty without extracting that
value when it had more international friends than now? What should make the
electorate feel ZANU PF will extract the minerals or make them extracted and
put to good use worse off when the party has militarized the extraction of
diamonds which are diverted outside country managed accounts? Reading such
naked hogwash between the lines of ZANU (PF)’s peddled lies brings questions
about the electorate’s ability to simulate information and act upon it. The
extant deception can only be made to a peasantry electorate that never lived in
the 21st century. For a 21st century generation, serious
with its purpose and future to be deceived to such a melodramatic proportion points
to a conclusion of hopelessness, surrender and inability to effectively decide.
The utmost redundancy of
ZANU (PF) is eminently evident in its claim that it will unlock US$7,3 billion
from indigenization of 1, 138 foreign-owned companies to capacitate perennial
conduits of ZANU (PF) corruption such as Infrastructure Development Bank of
Zimbabwe (IDBZ), Agribank and Small Enterprise Development Corporation (Sedco).
What is more sinister however is the total failure to understand basic
economics by ZANU (PF) leadership. Ownership of a company does not immediately
translate into liquidity or dividend share. All Zimbabwean companies
irregardless of background or ownership are struggling and illiquid because of
ZANU (PF) misrule. One then wonder where the unlocked value would come from.
Again looking at the macroeconomics, the valuation of $7.3 billion is
hoodwinking the electorate because Zimbabwe’s gross domestic product stands at
approximately US$6 billion including well performing indigenous companies which
makes the valuation a fraught of mischief, a tenet of ZANU (PF)’s leadership. Their
unashamed lies go further to expose ZANU (PF)’s voodoo finance that the USD7.3
billion will be spun fourfold within five years to USD$29.2 billion. What one
must critically think of here is to look at the opposite side of the
transaction. Who on this earth is prepared to fund a risk illiquid asset such
as unlisted expropriated shares of foreign-owned companies? Let’s agree for a
moment that it can happen but if those shares are to be maintained in the
ownership of the indigenous Zimbabweans, who amongst Zimbabwe’s ordinary black citizenry
has such amounts of money?
The party is silent on
spinning the full $2 trillion for reasons that it will expose their financial
insanity. What is however evidently clear is the voodoo financial promises
typical of desperation. Other surprises are what ZANU (PF) terms “idle assets”
with parastatals ($7 681 078 582) and local authorities ($1 357 010 326).
What actually raises eyebrows is the fact that the party acknowledge idleness
of the assets when parastatals and local authorities under ZANU (PF) ministers
are dismally performing given such a whooping leverage to liquid assets.
Towards the end of the
manifesto, ZANU (PF) bemoans the burgeoning external debt of $10 billion which
is mainly blamed on the inherited $700 million from the Ian Smith government.
ZANU (PF) goes to the extreme of hinting a possible default on the debt which
would throw financial markets into disequilibrium and cut all external funding
that is oiling the economy. The reason why the debt issue was mentioned towards
the end of the document is based on treachery belief that the reader has no
memory and would not be able to make logic judgement. The logical judgement is
that $10 billion is a mere 0.5% nanofraction of $2 trillion that ZANU PF claims
that it will create in the next five years. Given that scenario, it should be
the easiest task for such a successful governing party to extinguish the loan
and open more productive lines of credit. There is a mismatch in what is
promised to be unlocked and the disproportionate grumbling about the external
loan. So readers beware!
Then exactly
$352 672 498 would be siphoned for Mugabe’s scholarship, support of chiefs,
youth initiative and agricultural input support scheme to strengthen his
continued unsustainable rule. The biggest problem with the presidential
allocations especially scholarships is the partisan nature of their
distribution which crowd-out the deserving poor who end up at local
universities which lack world standard facilities. I urge the party not to
mislead the people and waylay the laymen. ZANU PF is only saying what the
people want to hear without the slightest sign of shame when they know they do
not have capacity to deliver the promises.
Consequences
of a ZANU (PF) Exclusive Government
ZANU (PF) is peddling a
manifesto which could have oversold in 1980 rather than now. Zimbabwe remain a
destitute nation because ZANU (PF) has been lethargic in the implementation of
pro-poor policies as evidenced by the mediocrity development of the country,
underutilization and personalization by Mugabe of natural resources, low
incomes by the generality of the citizenry, total neglect of the rural folks
and a total abuse of power by ZANU (PF) members of parliament and ministers. The
value the party claims to unlock from mineral deposits, local authority and
parastatal assets have all been at their disposal in the past 33 years. One wonder
if there is any good reason to believe ZANU (PF) now than in 1980?
ZANU (PF) parochially thinks
that by indigenizing a foreign owned entity they can immediately queue to
receive dividends and “share gross income” (page 37). The receiving mentality
and the lack of basic business acumen that gross income is never up for sharing
is quite evidenced by ZANU (PF)’s cadres’ strewn business failure including
underutilization of prime land that they divided amongst themselves. This is
the same reason why ZANU (PF) members resort to stealing and corruption to fund
their lifestyles because they are not good at business.
ZANU PF’s illiquid ideas and
assets it claim to unlock will hit hard the banking sector. Without a coherent
international relations strategy, a condescending attitude, continued default
on external debt and a battered international image, the party will not be able
to draw sufficient foreign direct investment as well as open long-term lines of
credit to deepen the financial markets and fund the growth of the nation. An
exclusive ZANU PF government will without doubt dry up the financial markets to
inextricable troughs. When we reach that stage ZANU PF becomes a monster than a
partner. They can go print the Zimdollar as promised in the manifesto or try the
concoction of an outlasted gold backed currency. Without a currency and
liquidity, business and households will fail to service their loans, banks will
dry up as they fail to service and attract external funding leading the whole
financial system to crumple in total.
Conclusion
The monograph articulated
the worst mischief in the ZANU PF manifesto. There is a deliberate intention to
mislead the electorate by promising unattainable promises. The deliverables
that the party has set for itself are unrealistic and undeliverable given the
party’s poor past performance record. The odds are against an exclusive ZANU
(PF) government because of battered international relations, lack of leadership
qualities, lack of prudent management of public resources, unavailability of
balance of payment support and a high propensity to corruption by the party’s
leaders. The party is neither prepared to stabilize nor turnaround the economy.
Devoid from reality, the party’s manifesto is illiquid hence it will cripple
the economy. Governments should progressively and steadily work towards
improving the overall performance of the economy by utilizing the available
resources rather than expecting some outlier event to spur their performance.
The electorate should critically scrutinize election manifestos to expose these
baseless outlier promises. Work of this nurture is encouraged to help decipher
realities and fictitious election promises. The analysis of the manifesto may
also result in a balanced scorecard of the governing party’s announced
deliverables which can be regularly validated during the tenure of the
government for performance evaluation. Such a system creates open government,
political discourse and public scrutiny of government performance.
References
ZANU (PF) 2013 Manifesto
www.sokwanele.com/system/.../zanupf_election_manifesto_130705.pdf
(accessed 29 June 2013)
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